On The Strategy Of Kingsburg: Part The Second

(the first half of this series may be found here: http://lorddicely.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/on-strategy-of-kingsburg-part-first.html)

In the previous section of this discussion, I presented some ramblings on the general strategy of Kingsburg, mostly with a view to enlightening the beginner. This post takes a slightly more scientific approach than mere "expert opinion" - I have procured a number of strategies publicised by the estimable chaps at BoardGameGeek.com, and tested out each strategy several times.

I'm afraid I didn't have the stomach to perform too many tests, so this survey lacks true statistical power. However, in each case I tested in 2, 3 and 4 player games at minimum - most strategies were tested around half-a-dozen times. Experimental protocol was as follows:

• Plays were performed using Thomas Arnold's excellent Java software implementation. Plays were against computer intelligences. This spared human players the tedium, as well as providing a fairly consistent level of opposition. For reference, the artificial intelligences play fairly well, and I lost more often than won when learning this game.
• Another advantage of this approach was that I had access to a range of statistics at end of game. Thus I could determine how my rolls had compared to my opponents, and hence how sensitive each strategy is to poor luck.
• I played each strategy with 2, 3 and 4 players. Most of these were then retested at least once.
• Winter support from the King followed the standard rules (i.e. roll a die, receive 1 to 6 soldiers). Most variants provide less combat strength, which may sway the game towards more defensive strategies.
• Only the five rows present in the base game were used. The number of potential strategies provided by the expansion is huge, and far beyond the scope of this article.

I now present each strategy in turn.

1. The Strong Fortress strategy

This strategy involves building the Market, and then pushing directly to the Fortress, before buying towards the Cathedral. Thus the build order is usually Inn/Palisade/Market in the first year (if possible - the high cost of the Market may cause it to be missed in the first year), then buying Stable/Stone Wall/Fortress as soon as possible, then the Cathedral row. Having the Market can give the flexibility and reach to buy the high number of resources needed early in this plan.
This strategy provides a fair degree of combat strength at the beginning, before rushing for points. I did also try this strategy including buying the Crane - this didn't make much difference either way.
When playing this strategy, I won approximately half the time, coming second in all other cases. However, those second places were all accompanied by poor rolls (all-dice averages under 10 through the game). With average rolls, this is a surprisingly robust strategy, despite it's lack of Crane and defense in the later game. You will, however, have to remember to buy soldiers (and make use of the Stables) in later years; I once built a Cathedral, only to lose it in the final battle.

2. The Weak Fortress strategy

This strategy involves a more rounded strategy than the Strong Fortress, buying more of the low-value buildings:

• Year 1: Inn/Palisade/Guard Tower
• Year 2: Barricade/Crane/Blacksmith
• Year 3: Stable/Stone Wall/Fortress
• Years 4 and 5: buy row 1 to the Chapel level, then either fill the Wizard's Guild or Cathedral depending on preference and/or how much more combat strength is required, depending on the nature of the King's support.

In practice, the Strong Fortress strategy rarely reaches the Fortress by the end of Year 2, typically having to wait until the beginning of Year 3 anyway; hence it often has little advantage over the Weak Fortress, unless you are very lucky/have very accommodating opponents who will not block you. The strategy above actually produces more total combat strength; while it lacks the flexibility and power provided by the Market, it produces a more solid basis for combat support through the game (as with all strategies, though, remember to buy soldiers in the later game!).
When testing, this strategy delivered on a consistent basis. Not only did I win all but one attempt, but on several occasions I won despite having the worst die rolls of all players.

3. The Strong Embassy strategy

The main alternative for reliable VPs over time is the Embassy. As the Embassy provides points every season, it will produce three times the VPs of the Fortress; however, it provides no combat strength, hence requiring other routes (particularly the buying of soldiers) to support it. Furthermore, the Embassy provides more points the earlier it is constructed; this strategy involves building as soon as possible.

• Year 1: Barricade/Crane/Town Hall (6 resources in total thanks to Crane power, achievable in year 1)
• Year 2: Embassy/Guard Tower (7 resources in total, also entirely possible. By building the Embassy in the summer of year 2, it will provide 11 VPs over time, in addition to the 4 for constructing it)
• Year 3: Inn/Guard Tower/Blacksmith (fill in defense and flexibility in the year things tend to become tough)
• Years 4/5: buy Statue for easy VPs, then fill row 3 or buy row 4 for defense (depending on preference for Stable vs Barracks; note that, even though you have two buildings in row 3, it only costs 2 more resources to build all of row 4 at this point, which will give more combat strength and bonus VPs for battles, though fewer VPs for building value).

This strategy is more sound than it looks at first; though it ignores defence for the first couple of years, this gap is filled later. The main risks with this strategy are receiving little support from the King in early years, and the possibility of being blocked as the lack of an early Inn limits flexibility. The latter problem is slightly relieved by the cheapness of the buildings in this strategy. Overall I won consistently with this strategy, but nonetheless this strategy is risky.

4. The Weak Embassy strategy

This strategy involves more defense in the early stages, leaving the Embassy until later; this sacrifices some VPs from the Embassy, while taking fewer risks in battle.

• Year 1: Inn/Guard Tower/Palisade
• Year 2: Stable/Blacksmith/Barricade
• Year 3: Crane/Town Hall/Embassy
• Years 4 and 5: Buy as much of the Cathedral row as possible.

This strategy also won consistently, even with poor rolls. In one four-player game, I still won with an all-die average roll 1.4 less than the next-worse rolls.

5. The Magic strategy

This strategy is focused on filling the Wizard's Guild row. It is an interesting strategy, focusing on buying many of the lower-value buildings, and using Cathedral row buildings to buffer against disastrous rolls.

• Year 1: Guard Tower/Palisade/Barricade
• Year 2: Crane/Statue/Blacksmith
• Year 3: Chapel/Barracks/Wizard's Guild
• Years 4 and 5: Church/Stable/Stone Wall/Town Hall

This strategy provides good defense, uses row 1 for VPs, relies on inexpensive buildings, and mitigates disaster through the Statue/Chapel. However, it lacks the flexibility of the Inn/Market. Overall I came first only slightly more often than not; however, on one occasion I won despite losing the combat on round 3, and on other occasions despite having lower-than-average rolls. This strategy also brought one of my biggest wins (by a margin of 16 points over the second-placed player). Overall I found this strategy satisfactory, but not as consistent as some of those above.

6. The Farm strategy

As discussed in part one of this series, players rarely use strategies around the Farms, as the high reward is usually more than counteracted by the cost and downsides. Nonetheless I did attempt one strategy based around the Farms for comparative purposes.

• Year 1: Inn/Guard Tower/Palisade
• Year 2: Market/Blacksmith/save resources for Farms next year
• Year 3: Farms/Barracks (consider buying soldiers for defense using Barracks)
• Years 4 and 5: buy Wizard's Guild, then Cathedral row

This was the least successful strategy tested in this experiment. I only won once, and even then only by 3 points. I also suffered my worst loss (14 points below the next-placed opponent). I suffered my losses when I had worse rolls than opponents; this indicates the dependence of this strategy on dice rolls. Even where I survived all winters, and had comparable dice rolls to opponents, I still came second (4 VPs behind the winner). Consequently I cannot recommend this strategy.

Final thoughts

The most consistently successful strategies were the Weak Fortress/Embassy strategies. These strategies were also reasonably flexible, and relied largely on inexpensive buildings, thus mitigating the consequences of poor dice rolls. With alternative methods of Winter support, I suspect the Weak Fortress will only become stronger.
One other implication is that the most successful strategies open with Inn/Guard Tower/Palisade in their first years. This is a good plan for beginners, irrespective of how they then play out the game. Thus players should probably take Wood as their free resource at the beginning of the game; buying three wood in the first year is usually more difficult than obtaining two gold or one stone.
I hope this series has been useful to you, and wish you all the best with your future games.